A Looming Nightmare in Taiwan

The change of government in Washington could embolden Beijing to do its worst

The people of Taiwan, a beacon of freedom uncomfortably adjacent to the world’s largest dictatorship, have a great many reasons to worry about the upcoming Trump presidency.

There was a time when American right-wingers referred to Taiwan as Free China and hailed its plucky defense of liberty. Back then Taiwan was a dictatorship and viewed as valiant pawn in the global crusade against Communism.

Now Taiwan is a democratic entity with an impressively flourishing civil society. Facing it across the Taiwan Strait is an increasingly authoritarian dictatorship that repeatedly threatens to invade.

Supporting Taiwan’s struggle to remain independent should be a no brainer but in the new Trumpian era ideology is a vague concept and the idea of supporting a foreign democracy at the risk of undermining American interests is anathema.

Donald Trumps’ America First policy is not a mere piece of rhetoric nor are the repeated threats from China’s Xi Jinping to invade Taiwan mere words. Beijing backs up the threat by escalating military activity in the sky and waters around the island hoping to scare the bejesus out of Taiwanese people.

Despite Beijing’s insistence that the future of Taiwan is purely a domestic matter there is little doubt that pressure from overseas has an effect.  It matters at the diplomatic level but more important is US weapons supply to Taiwan combined with multinational military maneuvers close to the island.

Donald Trump has a clear penchant for dictators and a special feeling for Mr. Xi, who he admires for being ruthless and ruling without constraint.

Despite this bond of admiration Team Trump repeatedly express a determination to get tough with China on trade but are notably silent on the defense of Taiwan aside from Mr. Trump’s comments about Taiwan having to pay for the military protection it gets from America; he seems unaware that the island state does in fact pay for most of its weaponry.

What it does not pay for are the US naval and air patrols in the region, launched in cooperation with other democratic countries designed to demonstrate solidarity with Taiwan.

The hard men in Beijing would invade Taiwan tomorrow if they believed that it would be cost free. The outgoing Biden administration has, at the very least, given China’s rulers reason for caution. Every indication is that a Trump administration, while not exactly giving a green light would be highly unlikely to respond were an invasion to be launched.

That does not mean that China has no worries over the repercussions of an invasion, not least because it cannot be sure how much resistance it would face on the ground from Taiwan’s military, but it does remove one very big source of concern.

Moreover the four-year Trump presidency provides a timeframe for action. Even in Beijing where free elections are unknown, it is well understood that the election cycle can produce a new president who might not be so amenable. Combining this timeframe with General Secretary Xi’s avowed determination to settle this matter before he leaves office makes it all the more ominous.

If, as is possible, the new US administration effectively abandons Ukraine to the consequences of the Russian invasion, Beijing will see this as further evidence of having a free hand to do its worst in Taiwan.

As someone who is close to Chinese and Hong Kong dissidents I have been appalled by high levels of support shown for the Trump campaign based on the belief that a strong leader would stand up to Beijing, some may even be foolhardy enough to believe Mr. Trump’s boast that he will rapidly get Jimmy Lai, the Hong Kong publisher, out of jail. This is naivety of a high order because it is well known that Mr. Trump freely promises the impossible and is hardly a friend of democracy.

His alleged standing up-ness purely relates to US trade interests. Taiwan might well be seen as a distraction or, worse, a bargaining tool for economic benefits in return for turning a blind eye to an invasion.

The outgoing administration and members of the legislature can take some credit for having kept the spotlight on the crackdown on liberty in Hong Kong. This is one of the very few bi-partisan issues in American politics.

But the incoming administration’s laser focus on an America First policy is highly likely to leave Taiwan in a very bad place.

Talk of a Trump presidency making an invasion more likely might appear to be alarmist and taking insufficient account of Taiwan’s many influential friends in Washington but reasons for concern are real and pressing. At the very least what China’s current leader and America’s new leader are saying requires careful attention because what they are saying spells disaster for Taiwan.