Anything else I can help you with Mr Xi?
As Britain prepares to publish its new plan for relations with China the big question appears to be whether a full or half kowtow will work best
Should a country such as Britain have a ‘normal’ relationship with the People’s Republic of China (PRC)? This question arises in anticipation of the UK government’s so called ‘audit’ of relations with China, due, after much delay, to be published soon.
Hopes are low for Britain to adopt a China policy with a bit of backbone because while there is obviously a need to maintain relations with the PRC, current policy does not recognise that the UK is dealing with a hostile state which would not hesitate to do Britain harm.
Apologists for a policy of accommodating China pride themselves on being realists not encumbered by moral judgement. It’s the kind of realism which ignores that the PRC is a ruthless dictatorship, currently embolden by a sense of its own greatness as democratic countries reel under the uncertainty emanating from Washington.
The PRC conducts its foreign relations in ways that are not ‘normal’. It believes it has the right to exercise its jurisdiction abroad and to dispatch agents to carry out intimidation and even arrest Chinese people abroad (I use the word Chinese because the PRC does not even recognise the foreign nationality of people it deems to be Chinese).
And what can be normal about relations with a country that is carrying out genocide, notably in Xinjiang but also in Tibet.
Lurking in the background are consistent threats to invade Taiwan, a democracy on its doorstep which poses an existential threat to the PRC, not because of spurious claims to sovereignty but because it is a living reminder of how a Chinese society, previously under dictatorial rule, has managed to thrive after ridding itself of tyranny.
The grand people in Britain’s foreign office will probably say that all this talk of genocide, invasions and extraterritorial illegal activity is exaggerated. Predictably they will argue that a measured approach must be adopted, in line with the weasel words of the Labour government’s existing policy of "cautious cooperation and challenge", which is every bit as meaningless as it sounds.
Owing to the perennially precarious state of Britain’s economy, they will urge the UK to strain every sinew to secure economic cooperation with China in the hope of largesse from Beijing.
This idea of China riding to Britain’s economic rescue has consistently proved to be illusory but we are told that patience and persistence will yield better results. Thus we have seen a flurry of visits to Beijing by the most senior members of the UK government, shortly to be joined by the Prime Minister himself.
In January the Chancellor of the Exchequer was mightily pleased with herself after supposedly securing various forms of economic ‘engagement’ worth a derisory £600m over a five year period. Not only is engagement a meaningless term but this sum is barely worth talking about. It was so irrelevant that the Chinese side did not even mention it in the wake of her trip.
China will, of course, invest and trade with Britain in ways that are to the advantage of the PRC. But the net result is peanuts, amounting to 0.2% of the UK’s total direct foreign investment. Chinese investment in Britain would be higher had PRC companies been allowed to take a significant stake in Britain’s telecommunications infrastructure but even the UK government finally came to its senses recognising the security threat this involved.
The trade relationship is more significant but, surprise, surprise, Chinese imports are roughly double British exports to China.
So, if we are going to talk about realism, let’s focus on the fact that China is the big winner in Anglo-Chinese economic relations and no amount of so called cautious cooperation is likely to change this state of affairs.
Moving onto the fundamental political and diplomatic challenges that characterise relations with the PRC, the reality is that in 2022 Britain’s security services were sufficiently worried to describe China as being the UK’s most serious long-term threat.
If Britain is to have ‘normal’ relations with the PRC it will, at the very least, need to ensure that consular access is given to British citizens, notably the best known of its political prisoners, the publisher Jimmy Lai, held largely in solitary confinement in Hong Kong. It should also mean taking a firm line on opposing China’s plans to build the largest embassy in Britain straddling highly sensitive telecommunications underground cables in the City of London and it should show zero tolerance for Chinese state operatives harassing citizens on British soil.
In the great order of things these as small asks, the bigger ask is for Britain to recognise that it is dealing with an odious dictatorship with a predilection for bullying. Bullies have no respect for their weak victims – now is the time for Britain to decide whether its best interests are served by being China’s amicable punchbag.