First as tragedy, then as farce, with no apologies to Karl Marx, who may well be to blame

This Green and Surprisingly Pleasant Land goes to Taiwan

Just in case you thought that the world became less safe in 2023, the coming year threatens at least one further disaster.

Yet again the threat comes from a one party state bent on destroying a neighbouring democracy. Following on from the appalling consequences of Russia’s ambitions in Ukraine, China, an even bigger authoritarian state is poised to do its worst.

The sclerotic Chinese dictatorship is obsessed with a mission to destroy democracy in Taiwan, not least because it will be humiliated if, despite Beijing’s attempts to prevent this happening, the incumbent independence-minded party wins next month’s presidential election.

I have recently been in Taiwan, talking to many people in the capital Taipei, most of whom were surprisingly unalarmed by the immediate prospect of an invasion, although no one is prepared to rule it out.

The calm is belied by the fact that every street now has assembly points and shelters in case the worst happens. In the southern city of Tainan fighter jets on training exercises streak across the sky for much of the day. Meanwhile from Beijing there is an unending flow of verbal threats backed up by ominous military incursions designed to show that the dictatorship means business.

The Chinese Communist Party has given up on the idea of persuading the Taiwanese to embrace unification under the banner of ‘one country, two systems’ because, having made the same offer to the people of Hong Kong, its ominous reality is there for all to see.

The government in Taipei does not want to spread panic. Officials and many other thoughtful people cite a number of reasons why an invasion is not imminent. They believe that Chairman Xi Jinping has quite enough on his plate without getting involved in a major military confrontation.

China’s once growing economy has slammed into reverse, unemployment, especially of young people, is at alarming levels and a debt crisis bubbles with volcanic force.

Moreover there are clear signs of unease at the top of the regime where very senior officials have disappeared from view.

The problem is that these arguments are uncannily similar to those heard in Ukraine prior to the Russian invasion when President Putin faced similar problems on the home front and, like his Chinese counterparts, made no secret of his aggressive intentions.

Ukrainians, like the Taiwanese, live in functioning democracies where their government is focused on improving the lives of their citizens rather than starting wars with seemingly little regard for the cost in human lives. They find it hard to conceptualise why even power crazed dictators are bent on destruction, not as a means to an end but as the end itself.

These democracies are at threat because they offer a compelling alternative to neighbouring dictatorships.

While the People’s Republic of China, since it birth, has suffered under a dictatorship, with often fatal consequences, Taiwan made a peaceful transition to democracy from the Kuomintang (KMT) dictatorship. This is a remarkable achievement, insufficiently recognised in the outside world.

Perhaps more important is that the Taiwanese have demonstrated an extraordinary ability to live with their turbulent past which includes a long Japanese occupation, that was hardly without blemish. Yet Japanese culture has had a lasting impact and people to people ties with Japan remain strong. No one seriously wants to return to the KMT dictatorship, yet the Kuomintang continues to be a major force in today’s democratic politics. Moreover, in marked contrast to the relentless re-writing of history in the PRC, Taiwanese are sufficiently self-confident to live with their past, even to the extent of seeing the image of Chiang Kai-shek, a brutal dictator, on the face of coins they handle every day. The shrine to his memory remains in place right in the centre of Taipei and so on.

The rest of the world, kowtowing to Beijing’s bullying, denies Taiwan’s’ status as a sovereign state but aside from an absence of embassies in Taipei, there is practically nothing that alters the reality of statehood.

If you have spent a fair amount of time in China it does not take long to recognise the considerable everyday differences between the PRC and Taiwan where the people have created a prosperous, culturally rich and civilised society.

The existence of a burgeoning civil society is also in sharp contrast to the cynicism and often alarmingly self-centred behaviour of PRC citizens. Taiwanese are extraordinarily friendly, honest and revel in their liberty even though much of this revelling is manifest by turbulent politics and bitter denunciations of the government.

Chairman Xi appears to be convinced that his legacy can only be secured by extinguishing this dangerous beacon of light.

If he succeeds the hubris and ambition of the Chinese Communist Party will be felt way beyond this not so little island.