The perils of conventional wisdom

This Green and Surprisingly Pleasant Land examines why group think is often deeply flawed, not to mention dangerous

What do you think about conventional wisdom? I guess we all imagine that we are not swayed by it and may even be inclined to rebel against it. Yet conventional wisdom, often called group think, has a tenacious hold on common perceptions, often right up the moment when those perceptions are shattered.

Conventional wisdom is a powerful force, particularly in the world of public affairs. Its perils have been vividly illustrated by two major public inquiries underway in London.

The first relates to the sub-postmasters’ scandal which led to the most widespread miscarriage of justice in modern British history. Witness after witness from the Post Office and government who were responsible for the judicial lynching of sub-postmasters arising from false accusations of theft, have been seeking mitigation by saying that ‘we all thought’ that the computer system, which generated these errors, was infallible and that ‘everyone’ was on board with this view.

Meanwhile over at the inquiry into the many, many failings of the way the Covid crisis was handled, officials have been wailing about how group think led them to prepare for the wrong crisis, they also complain about how conventional wisdom was used to respond to a unique (as it turned out, not so unique) set of circumstances and so on.

Folks challenging conventional wisdom were ignored and ostracized. Once the floodgates burst open and group thinking is exposed for what it is was an impressive number of people can be expected to claim to have had their suspicions all along.  Most of them are probably telling outright porkies while others are sufficiently delusional to have persuaded themselves that what they now know, meant that they somehow acted upon this knowledge back then.

Mostly however conventional wisdom is less harmful even though it creates distinctly dubious perceptions.

Right now much attention is focused on Kamala Harris, once perceived as a failed US Vice-President who could not possibly be a serious contender for the top job. I assume that this is the same Ms. Harris who is now being credited with invigorating the Democratic presidential campaign and is showered with plaudits by all sorts of people who gave no previous indication of enthusiasm.

What’s changed are the circumstances, that great force which evolves, often without warning much to everyone’s surprise.

In Britain, where things are supposed to move more slowly, we have seen conventional wisdom shattered in the most conventional of political parties, the Conservatives. They opted to select the first woman to be prime minister, amidst much murmuring about how everyone knew that the country was not ready for such a thing. The Tories went on to select the first person of colour to lead the party. He may well be replaced by another leader from Britain’s black and brown community. What was once confidently predicted to be unthinkable is no longer considered to be remarkable.

The deep rooted snobbery and class consciousness which tenaciously lingers in Britain created a narrative asserting that someone like Mick Lynch, a ‘mere’ railway man with a distinctive London working class accent, could not possibly be one of the most articulate political figures in the current firmament. Trade union leaders, like Mr. Lynch, were supposed to have gone beyond their sell-by date yet there he was getting popular support for strikes and a wide range of other issues.

Conventional wisdom has long held that women had no place at the top of the ladder and saw it as axiomatic that openly gay people could not hold leadership roles because of their sexual orientation. Now only the most dogged homophobes even comment on these matters. It, was of course, a form of nonsense that informed group think and as such withered with little resistance under overwhelming evidence proving conventional wisdom to be deeply flawed.

Unlike the brave attempt by the poet Philip Larkin to pinpoint the beginning of sexual intercourse to 1963, the precise timing when these attitudes changed is hard to pin down. All that is known is that once conventional wisdom changed people looked back and wondered why it was ever there in the first place.

Who knows, conventional wisdom about the impossibility of Britain being able to run a decent rail service might yet be shattered. I am not convinced I will be around to see it.

UPDATE: The UK has now withdrawn its objection to the issue of an arrest warrant for Benjamin Netanyahu by the International Criminal Court on suspicion of war crimes. This was the subject of my post  Do the right thing, even if it's painful (substack.com), arguing that a decision of this kind would provide a clear indication of the new Labour government’s commitment to morality in policy making. It is just possible that my fine words were not crucial here (or anywhere else) but it would be churlish not to recognise that Labour has indeed done the right thing. And, just to be clear, this is not to say that the Israeli Premier will be found guilty but that the judicial process of determining guilt will not be hindered.